Opus 5.5 long-running agent cost analysis
Updated September 27, 2026 · first published September 27, 2026
A demo revealed Opus 5.5 working autonomously for ~25 hours to build a complete Minecraft clone: ~100K lines of game code, 26K lines of tests, 1,000 automated tests, 775 files, 783 generated images, 184 generated sounds, and an in-game guide. This is the first public glimpse of a long-horizon coding agent at scale. Let's model the cost.
Estimating token volume
No official token counts published. We'll model from output artifacts:
| Artifact | Est. tokens | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 100K lines game code | ~3M output | ~30 tokens/line avg |
| 26K lines tests | ~0.8M output | ~30 tokens/line |
| 775 files (structure, config) | ~0.5M output | Boilerplate + imports |
| 783 images (prompts + metadata) | ~1.5M input | ~2K tokens/image prompt |
| 184 sounds (prompts + metadata) | ~0.4M input | ~2K tokens/sound prompt |
| In-game guide / docs | ~0.3M output | Markdown + code snippets |
| Context / reasoning (25 hrs) | ~10M input | Tool calls, observations, planning |
| Total estimate | ~12.4M input / ~4.6M output |
Cost at Opus 5.5 pricing
| Token type | Volume | Rate | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Input (uncached, est. 30%) | 3.7M | $4.00/MTok | $14.80 |
| Input (cached, est. 70%) | 8.7M | $0.20/MTok | $1.74 |
| Output | 4.6M | $20.00/MTok | $92.00 |
| Total | ~$108.54 |
~$109 for a 25-hour autonomous agent run producing a shippable game. That's ~$4.36/hour of agent compute.
Sensitivity: cache hit rate matters most
| Cache hit rate | Input cost | Total cost | Cost/hour |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | $24.80 | $131.60 | $5.26 |
| 70% (baseline) | $16.54 | $108.54 | $4.34 |
| 90% | $8.88 | $92.88 | $3.72 |
At 90% cache hit (achievable with good context management), the run drops to $93 total / $3.72/hr.
Comparison: human developer
A senior dev building this solo: 3-6 weeks (~120-240 hours) at $100-200/hr = $12K-$48K. The agent run at $109 is 100-400x cheaper — but only if the output quality passes your release gate.
What this means for your agent budget
- Long-horizon agents are affordable. Sub-$150 for a 25-hour complex build changes the ROI calculus for agent-first workflows.
- Cache is the lever. Invest in prompt caching infrastructure — every 10% cache hit improvement saves ~$1.60 on a run like this.
- Output tokens dominate. At $20/MTok, output is 85% of the bill. Models that are more concise (Anthropic claims 40% less verbose) directly cut cost.
- Monitor per-run, not per-month. Agent workloads are bursty. Track cost per task completion, not aggregate monthly spend.
Related reading
See Claude Opus 5.5 cost model, agent economics, prompt caching economics, and cost per successful task.
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